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Global semiconductor industry: next year is the golden years?

SJ Techologies Ltd
Source: China Electronics News: [Date] :2012-9-29

32% growth in the global semiconductor industry in 2010, 2011 and 2012, two consecutive years of growth
at 1% or so, some people in the industry predict 2013 will be another high growth year in accordance with
the law of the cyclical semiconductor industry, How reliable this prediction?

2012 does not calm

Part of the market analysis firm recently lowered this year's forecast, there are two main reasons: First,
because the first half of global PC shipments slowdown in 2012, the growth rate of the global PC market is
expected to only 0.9%. According to IDC Global PC market quarterly tracking report predicts that in 2012,
global PC shipments of 367 million units, representing an increase of less than 1% last year, the second
consecutive year, the growth rate of less than 2%. Weakening global macroeconomic continue to drag on the
growth of the semiconductor industry, such as the European debt crisis continue to simmer, the fear of the
U.S. economic recovery is weak, as well as China's economic locomotive can no longer become.

Recent action of many large companies to confirm the above view, July, Intel lowered its sales in 2012, an
increase of only 3% to 5% previously forecast in the second half strong growth; TSMC's quarterly growth rate
of only 1% to 2%, might at least from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013; There STMicron
uncertain future has announced its 2012 investment will be cut by 25%.

In addition, in May, the Japanese Renesas ready to adopt the reorganization of fablite strategy, begun to reduce
the chip manufacturer, plans to reduce the existing nine before the process plant in three years to seven,
and loquat 9 back-end production line whole strategy shift to August and 2. In 2012, a number of large companies
including SiltronicAG, Nokia, Cisco, OnSemi.Google 'sMotorolaMobilityandRambus layoffs, affecting consumer
confidence index.

2013 golden years?

SEMI latest report describes another view of the golden years, it's based on the following:

SEMI according to the statistics of about 200 fab including discrete devices LEDfab, predict Road before the 2013
semiconductor equipment sales may also be a golden year, reaching a record growth rate of about 17%, up to $ 43
billion .

Fab equipment sales in 2007 and 2011 was a golden year, although some decline in 2012, but is still the third
high-value since 2008.

SEMI believes that the key factor in promoting the growth of the 2012 Semiconductor Equipment is a global foundries,
including TSMC, Globalfoundries and UMC, three investment of over 10 billion U.S. dollars, and the investment of
nearly $ 10 billion forecast in 2013 is still.

Semiconductor equipment sales by product category, DRAM block may be continued to decline in the ASP will be very
good under pressure, 2009 Qimonda exit, exit the DRAM manufacturing in 2011, Taiwan's Powerchip another ProMOS down
under the pressure of the situation in the ASP very difficult. Overall, the current DRAM industry investment is only
used to develop new technology and upgrade existing fab. DRAM investment has fallen to a low level after the the
Elpida bankruptcy in early 2012 and predicted 2013 would not be a big change.

The 2012 flash Investment also began to slow down. The Sandisk announced its fab5 to temporarily stop the expansion
of production capacity, Toshiba also announced the end of July to cut the output of NAND 30% in early 2012.
However, SEMI data flash leaps again in 2013, including Samsung line16, SKHynix, FlashAlliance and Micron.
Very strange why Samsung Xi'an? Is SEMI negligence?

In August 2009, Toshiba and Sandisk both companies will be established on the basis of its Fab4 semiconductor
company FlashAllianceLtd. SanDisk will hold FlashAlliance49.9% of the shares, Toshiba holds a 50.1%.

You can see that among the many memory manufacturers, Samsung is the earliest awakening, it has begun to be able
to turn some of the memory production into the SoC logic chips. In June 2012, Samsung announced that it will
invest $ 1.9 billion to build a new logic chip production lines, production of the mobile device processor.

Samsung in 2012 with investment of over 5 billion U.S. dollars in logic chips, forecast for 2013 will exceed 60
billion U.S. dollars. According to reports, Samsung plans to change the 4 memory production line to the logic chip
production line.

Samsung estimates that if Apple's processor orders not change, Samsung's foundry production value of the average
annual growth of 30%, to reach $ 4 billion by 2012. But ICInsight latest forecast 2012's working in sales growth
of 54%, up to $ 3.375 billion, is still located the TSMC, globalfoundries, UMC, the world's fourth.

The fundamental driving force to promote the growth of the semiconductor industry is terminal shipments of electronic
products and the average selling price of the chip. Apparently intensified as intelligent electronic products,
semiconductor content increasing trend, currently account for about 25% of the value of electronic products.
The smartphone, tablet and PC is still the major force, may account for half of global semiconductor consumption.

However, the growth momentum in the semiconductor itself has slowed down, limited by the decline in the average price
of the product as well as the decline in the purchasing power of the customer, resulting in the future may be affected
by the global macro-economic impact will be more pronounced. 2013 how? Remains to be seen.

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